Graingrowers are being warned to expect a heightened risk of frost as a result of El Nino conditions.
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While maximum temperatures are often warmer than average during El Nino years, decreased cloud cover can lead to cooler than average night-time temperatures during winter and spring.
SARDI climate applications principal scientist Peter Hayman said reduced soil moisture and clear nights – conditions typically associated with El Nino events – were conducive to frost.
Dr Hayman, who is involved in frost research projects being funded by GRDC through its National Frost Initiative, said while the risk of frost was expected to be increased this year, the exact timing and frequency of frost events could not be predicted.
“Frosts are high-consequence, low-frequency events, which means they are difficult to predict and manage, and finding information can be hard,” Dr Hayman said.
With winter crops already in the ground, he said frost damage to crops could not be prevented but growers could reduce their losses through early identification of damage and implementation of strategies to salvage frosted crops.
Dr Hayman encouraged growers and their advisers to seek information to support their management decisions from the GRDC, which has produced numerous resources to assist growers in dealing with frost.
One GRDC-funded environmental prediction project - involving Dr Hayman and being led by CSIRO's James Risbey - will investigate forecast and management options for mitigating extreme temperature impacts on grains.
This project will assess the skill of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia to forecast a shift in the likelihood of spring frost and heat events in the southern and western GRDC regions.
This assessment will involve comparing past POAMA forecasts with the historical record and improving understanding of how the frequency of these events changes with large scale drivers of atmosphere and ocean circulation.
“We will work with farmers, their advisers and extension providers to incorporate forecasts of the likelihood of frost and heat events into their risk management,” Dr Hayman said.
