Members of South Australia's sheep sector believe the federal government is grossly underestimating the impact a ban on live sheep exports by sea will have on the industry outside of WA.
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The bill to ban the trade passed the federal Senate on Monday night, meaning the largely WA-based industry will end by May 2028.
Livestock SA president Joe Keynes has labelled the policy and process "one of the most profoundly deaf acts from government towards the livestock industry and agriculture more broadly for some time".
He said the federal government's grounds for the policy - poor animal welfare and social licence - had been disproven time and time again.
The $107 million transition package for WA sheep producers was described as "measly" by the Livestock SA president.
"There has also been no recognition of the wide-ranging impacts this legislation will have on farmers and regional communities in other jurisdictions," Mr Keynes said.
"For example, more than 670,000 head of sheep have been trucked across the South Australian border in the first five months of this year. This 460 per cent increase on last year is the start of things to come and the real impacts of this must be recognised and addressed."
The data, sourced by agricultural analysts Episode 3, shows 673,571 sheep and lambs headed across the Nullarbor from January to May.
That figure was 165,706 in May alone.
Mr Keynes believes the decision to ban the industry has set an alarming precedent for the agricultural industry at large.
"It demonstrates that science, performance, economics, international relationships, and impacts to industry and regional communities will be overlooked in favour of ideological agendas," he said.
"To develop good policies and associated legislation that will enable us to continue feeding and clothing the nation and people around the world, governments need to listen to the advice of industry experts, not anti-industry activists."
Travis Bell of Bellevista, Kangaroo Island, says the decision would leave many farmers wondering 'what's next?'.
The Bell family run a 19,500 head flock and Mr Bell made a submission into The House Standing Committee on Agriculture's recent inquiry into the Ending Live Sheep Exports by Sea Bill.
He felt a "deep sense of disappointment", but not surprise, when hearing the Bill had passed the Senate.
"I don't think the federal government has a true grasp on the flow on effects not only into South Australia, but the eastern states as well," he said.
"I think it (the impending ban) is a big part of why we're seeing such depressed pricing in SA and the eastern states at the moment.
"We've got a large volume of surplus stock currently coming in from WA and flooding our markets and abattoirs."
Mr Bell said positive accounts from veterinarians that work on live sheep export boats, and independent observer data, mean he has no trouble with the trade continuing.
He said if the government was hellbent on banning the trade, a longer phaseout period would have been beneficial and other markets established before an end date announcement was made.
"If they're adamant the boxed meat trade can be a replacement why not have that in place and let the live export by sea industry die its own death if they're adamant there's other options?," he said.
We promised, says Watt
Upon the ban being enshrined in law, federal Agriculture Minister Murray Watt reiterated that his government had made a commitment to ban live sheep by sea exports at the past two elections.
Contrary to the belief of many in the sheep sector, Mr Watt believes the government's transition plan offers "certainty, time and support".
"It's an industry that's been in long-term decline with the evolution of global food supply chains, and it now represents less than 1 per cent of Western Australia's agriculture sector," he said.
"At the same time demand for our lamb and mutton is going through the roof, both here and overseas - and just as other states have moved from live exports of sheep to more onshore processing, that's the high-value future for Western Australia.
"The fact is Australians and our trading partners buy a lot more processed sheep meat than live exported sheep.
"Our sheep meat exports are worth $4.5 billion and the domestic industry worth $3.5b, while the live trade is worth just $77 million."
Groups fighting to overturn the ban are now turning their attention to ousting the Labor government by targeting marginal seats.
The Liberal National coalition have vowed to overturn the ban if they win power at the next federal election.
Far west yards not noticing discernable difference since ban announced
Bryan Smith and family farm at Nundroo on SA's far west coast and have run a set of spelling yards for eight years.
The yards play host to sheep being trucked from WA to the eastern states.
Mr Smith said there have been more numbers, particularly older sheep, travelling across this year but doesn't believe the movement is necessarily due to the impending live export ban.
He said a dry season in the west last year and the better prices on offer in eastern abattoirs was likely causing the increased numbers and didn't think there was a discernable difference that could be attributable to concern about the ban.
Figures from DPIRD WA show that the dry conditions of 2019-21 did cause similar spikes in sheep movements, with 1.4 million sheep transferred to the eastern states in both 2019/20 and 2020/21.
The current figure halfway through 2024 is 670,000.
